BelSU Scientists Predict the Spread of Non-Indigenous Land Molluscs in Eastern Europe

This innovative approach, created at the Institute of Pharmacy, Chemistry, and Biology, aims to address the growing concern over invasive species.

Valeria Adamova, a Candidate of Biological Sciences and Associate Professor in the Department of Biology at BelSU, has gathered extensive data on non-native snail species in Eastern Europe. Her research focuses on several species, including grape and tree snails, as well as seven other species that are typically found in the southern regions of the continent. The forecast encompasses a broad area, covering parts of the European territory of Russia and neighboring Eastern and Southern European countries.

“These species are familiar to us; many people have likely encountered them without realizing it. When we travel to southern regions like the Crimea and the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus, we often inadvertently bring these snails home with us, whether by car or train,” said Valeria Adamova.

Currently, the spread of southern snail species beyond their natural habitats is being observed across the Russian Plain and surrounding areas. As these snails move from plant to plant, they can carry fungal and viral diseases that pose significant risks to agriculture. They directly damage economic crops by consuming young shoots, buds, and leaves. Additionally, land snails can serve as bridging hosts for parasites, potentially infecting humans and other warm-blooded animals.

The successful establishment of these non-indigenous invaders can lead to the displacement of local species, resulting in shifts in the composition of local fauna. To date, Adamova’s research has documented the presence of southern snail species in various regions of the European territory of Russia and other European countries. Notably, Black Sea and Caucasian land snail species have already been identified in the Belgorod region and its neighbouring areas, as well as the Volga region and even the Moscow region.

Researchers emphasize that the dispersal of southern snail species continues to accelerate each year, with their populations remaining stable. It is crucial for scientists to identify suitable habitats for these species, understand the boundaries of their ranges, and determine how far they might spread. Most importantly, they aim to assess which untouched natural ecosystems are at risk from these snails and whether they pose a threat to native plants and animals, including relict species.

To tackle this issue, BelSU scientists collected and analysed data from their own field collections alongside resources from the Zoological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Zoological Museum of Moscow State University, the State Natural History Museum of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and literature sources, as well as data from the GBIF repository.

Using this comprehensive dataset, Adamova has developed a predictive model that forecasts the distribution dynamics of nine gastropod species across Russia and adjacent regions in Eastern and Southern Europe.

The results led to the development of a model indicating that, in addition to their natural range, the most suitable habitats for southern snails are found on the Podolsk Upland and in the Middle and Lower Danube lowlands. According to the scientist, these snails can thrive alongside humans, successfully inhabiting transformed landscapes. Research has shown that many southern species are capable of living north of their original range.

Utilizing machine learning, the biologist evaluated the environmental conditions that could theoretically support these organisms and subsequently identified regions on the map where each species of terrestrial mollusc included in the model is likely to be found. The methods and algorithms employed will not only enable the researcher to refine the model as new data emerges but also facilitate the creation of similar models for other regions and various species of animals and plants.

This work has been published in the Russian Journal of Biological Invasions.